Navigating Uncertainty: The European Union Prepares for 2024 Amidst Global Challenges

The General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union (GSC) has released its “Forward Look 2024” report, outlining key uncertainties and potential challenges that the European Union (EU) is likely to face in the coming year. The report, serving as a guide for policymakers, emphasizes the need for understanding and managing uncertainties to make informed decisions in an increasingly complex global landscape.

A Year of Uncertainties

The report highlights that 2024 will be a pivotal year for the EU, marked by elections, institutional changes, and global uncertainties. The document identifies three main factors contributing to the uncertainty: global disorder, shifting economics, and the numerous important elections worldwide.

The global order is becoming weaker and more volatile, leading to a fragmented and multipolar world. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and recent conflicts in the Middle East, contribute to the challenges facing the existing multilateral system. The report underlines the struggle of major global powers to retain their traditional roles, creating a situation where the global structure weakens, and multilateralism faces difficulties in remaining relevant.

Weakening Global Structure: Risks and Opportunities for the EU

The intensification of great-power competition, particularly between the US and China, poses challenges for the EU. The report suggests that the EU faces risks such as geopolitical tensions, terrorism threats, and disruptions to trade and supply chains. However, crises can act as catalysts for European unity, as demonstrated in the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The report urges EU leaders to use crises as opportunities for greater cooperation and integration in critical areas like defense, migration, and capital markets.

The upcoming US presidential campaign and potential deterioration of US-China relations could complicate the EU’s efforts to strike a balance between de-risking and re-engaging with Beijing. Despite the risks, the report highlights the opportunity for the EU to fill power vacuums left by other great powers and position itself as a reliable global partner, especially in the face of increasing influence from middle powers.

Global Economy in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities

The report delves into the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and how they impact the EU. Geoeconomic fragmentation, shifting trade patterns, and the growing costs of climate change are key challenges. The volatility of energy prices and the transition to renewables present both risks and opportunities for the European economy.

Debates on financing EU spending amid increasing pressures on public budgets are expected to continue. Economic constraints may force the EU to redirect spending according to strategic priorities, fostering innovation and cost-effective solutions. The transition to renewables is portrayed as a critical driver of the EU’s competitiveness, saving billions in electricity bills and positioning the EU as a leader in sustainable practices.

Key Year for Elections: Navigating Political Uncertainty

The report emphasizes that about half of the world’s adult population is set to participate in elections in 2024, with risks of polarization, foreign interference, and challenges to democratic systems. EU elections, amid political polarization, may lead to a lengthy institutional transition, raising questions about leadership and political divisions. The report suggests that the Council and the European Council could provide stability and continuity during this transition, contributing to the EU’s image domestically and abroad.

Elections may focus leaders inward, addressing short-term domestic issues while the international landscape demands a more strategic approach. The green transition, in particular, risks becoming a casualty of elections due to ‘climate fatigue’ among voters. However, the report sees this as an opportunity to redefine the transition by focusing on social fairness and emphasizing its positive effects on quality of life, sovereignty, and resilience.

Leadership Amid Uncertainty

In conclusion, the report acknowledges the uncertainties of 2024 but underscores the importance of political will and leadership in navigating risks and seizing opportunities. The EU has the potential to influence outcomes proactively, mitigating risks and shaping the future. The European Council is identified as the primary entity responsible for providing leadership in the face of uncertainties, defining the EU’s capacity and will to act even in a very uncertain future.